All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Just how healthy is Heyward? by Handedness. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Im a little stubborn in that way. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. . by Retrosheet. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? These were the players remaining. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Heres a bomb to right-center. by Retrosheet. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Thats just how it goes. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. fangraphs.com 1d. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. . The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. by Handedness. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Forget about everything else. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. It could have something to do with the. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. Biggio knows right field well. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Higgins over one inning. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. UZRs range component agrees. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Just ask Jason Heyward. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. Chicago Cubs. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. The shift movement had already produced some . The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. Hes still really young These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors It really had good numbers on the computer. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. 12 years and 0 . Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Heres a bomb to right. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Games. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. He clearly can the man stands 65. FanGraphs Shirts. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Retrosheet. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Its not surprising. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Look at Jason Heyward. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR . My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. SUMMARY Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards.
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